Tunisia cement market & forecast (2012 update)

Table of Contents

Introduction......................................................................................4

Executive summary.......................................................................5

The economy and the construction sector..............................7

Economy..............................................................................................8

Figure: Economy and population.....................................................9

Trade................................................................................................9

2012 Budget...................................................................................10

Concerns.......................................................................................10

Economic Performance and Outlook..................................................11

Construction sector...........................................................................11

Figure: Construction sector and the economy..............................12

Housing..........................................................................................12

Infrastructure.................................................................................13

Table: Construction sector importance and growth.....................13

Projects..........................................................................................13

Cement market.............................................................................15

Market Overview...............................................................................15

Figure: Principal existing Plants...................................................17

Incumbent operations.........................................................................17

Société des Cimentos d'Enfida (Cementos Portland Valderrivas)................................................................ 17

Société des Ciments de Jbel Oust (Cimpor)...............................18

Société des Ciments de Gabès (Secil)........................................19

Société les Ciments Artificiels Tunisiens (Colacem)..................20

Société Tuniso-Andalouse of Ciment Blanc (Cementos Molins).21

Ciment Oum El Kelil (Government owned)...................................22

Ciments de Bizerte (Government owned).....................................22

Regional perspective.........................................................................23

Figure: Cement plant locations.....................................................24

Market shares................................................................................24

Figure: Market shares...................................................................25

Demand and supply.....................................................................26

Figure: 2005-2011 cement supply-demand balance....................26

Demand..............................................................................................27

Figure: 2005-2011E cement demand............................................27

Demand seasonality......................................................................28

Figure: 2008-2011E monthly cement demand..............................28

Cement trade......................................................................................28

Figure: Cement imports and exports............................................29

Imports...........................................................................................30

Figure: Cement & clinker imports: product types and evolution..30

Figure: Cement& clinker import countries....................................31

Figure: Import share......................................................................32

Exports...........................................................................................33

Figure: Cement Exports: product types and evolution..................33

Figure: Cement& clinker export countries....................................34

Cement supply...................................................................................34

Figure: 2005-2011E annual cement production............................35

Figure: 2005-2011E annual cement production per product type.. 36

Figure: 2008-2011E monthly cement production..........................37

Figure: CAPacity utilization (2006 – 2011E).................................38

Figure: Share of nameplate capacity............................................39

Expansion and greenfield projects....................................................39

Figure: Major upgrades and new plants........................................40

New capacity..................................................................................41

Figure: Nameplate cement production capacity (2005-2015E)....41

Figure: Cement production capacity (2005-2015E)......................42

Competitive dynamics........................................................................43

Fuel changes and petcoke............................................................43

Delivery: bag vs bulk.....................................................................44

Cement prices...............................................................................45

Figure: 2008-2011 indicative cement prices................................46

Outlook............................................................................................48

Figure: Apparent cement demand projection (2005-2015)...........48

Figure: Growth in apparent cement demand (2006-2015)............49

Next steps......................................................................................51

Data tables.....................................................................................52

Supply-demand balance (2005 – 2011E, mm tons)...........................52

Supply capacity market share (2009-2015E, %)...............................53

Imports by cement type (2005 – 2011E, tons)...................................54

Cement import countries (2005 – 2011E, tons)..................................56

Exports by cement type (2005 – 2011E, tons)..................................57

Cement export countries (2005 – 2011E, tons).................................58

Table: Cement plant capacities (2005 – 2015E, mm tons).................59

Disclaimers....................................................................................60

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62

Electronic (PDF)

USD750

May 2012