Vietnam cement market & forecast (2012 update)

Table of Contents

Introduction   .................................. 5

Executive summary   ................... 6

The economy and the construction sector  ................. 7

Economy    ... 7

Figure: Economy and population   . 9

Construction sector   ......................... 9

Real Estate   ................................ 10

Satellite Towns   .......................... 10

Infrastructure   ............................. 10

State-Owned Enterprises   .......... 10

Figure: Construction sector and the economy  ................. 11

Projects   ...................................... 12

Table: Construction sector importance and growth  ........ 13

Cement market   ......................... 14

Market Overview   ........................... 14

Figure: Principal existing Plants  ...................................... 17

Incumbent operations   ..................... 18

Vietnam Cement Industry Corporation (Vicem)  ............... 19

Joint Ventures   ............................ 20

Holcim Vietnam   ...................... 20

Chinfon Cement   ...................... 20

Nghi Son Cement   .................... 21

Cam Pha Cement   .................... 21

Lafarge Vietnam   ..................... 22

Select other international or local groups  ........................ 22

Vissai Group   ............................ 22

Ha Long Cement   ..................... 23

LUKS Cement   ......................... 23

Phuc Son Cement   ................... 24

Thanh Long Cement   ............... 24

Vinacomin   .............................. 24

COSEVCO 6   ............................ 25

FICO Tay Ninh   ........................ 25

Aalborg Portland Group   .......... 26

Figure: Cement plant locations (Map 1 of 3)  ................... 27

Figure: Cement plant locations (Map 2 of 3)  ................... 28

Figure: Cement plant locations (Map 3 of 3)  ................... 29

Market shares   ............................ 30

Figure: Share of nameplate capacity  ............................... 30

Demand and supply   ................. 31

Figure: 2005-2010 cement supply-demand balance  ....... 31

Demand    ... 31

Figure: 2005-2011E cement demand  ............................... 32

Cement trade   .................................. 33

Figure: Cement imports and exports  ............................... 33

Imports    33

Figure: Cement & clinker imports: product types and evolution .......... 34

Figure: Cement& clinker import countries  ....................... 35

Figure: Import share   .................. 37

Exports    38

Figure: Cement Exports: product types and evolution  ..... 40

Figure: Cement& clinkerexport countries  ........................ 41

Cement supply   ............................... 41

Table: Top 10 largest cement plants  ............................... 42

Figure: 2005-2010E annual cement production  ............... 43

Figure: Capacity utilization (2006-2010E)  ....................... 44

Regional Analysis   ...................... 45

Figure: Capacity distribution by region  ........................... 45

Figure: Capacity distribution by segment and region (mtpy) .................. 46

Figure: Capacity distribution by segment and region (share) ...................... 47

Expansion and greenfield projects   47

Figure: Nameplate cement production capacity (2005-2015E) ...................... 49

Figure: Cement production capacity (2005-2015E)  ......... 50

Competitive dynamics   .................... 51

Government   ................................... 53

Cement prices   ........................... 54

Figure: 2006-2010 indicative cement prices  ................... 55

Outlook    . 56

Figure: Apparent cement demand projection (2005-2015) ............................ 56

Figure: Growth in apparent cement demand (2006-2015) ......................... 57

Next steps   .................................. 59

Data tables   ................................. 60

Supply-demand balance (2005 – 2010E, mm tons)  .............. 60

Supply capacity market share (2009-2015E, %)  .................. 61

Imports by cement type (2005 – 2010E, tons)  ...................... 62

Cement import countries (2005 – 2010E, tons)  ..................... 64

Exports by cement type (2005 – 2010E, tons)  ..................... 65

Cement export countries (2005 – 2010E, tons)  .................... 66

Table: Existing cement plant capacities (2005 – 2015E, mm tons) ..................... 67

Table: Greenfield and cement plant expansion capacities (2005 – 2015E, mm tons) . 71

Table: Production capacity by segment (2005 – 2015E, mm tons) ..................... 73

Disclaimers   ................................ 74

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USD1,190

Dec 2011