Ethiopia cement market & outlook (2011 edition)

Table of Contents

Introduction...............................................................................4

Executive summary................................................................5

The economy and the construction sector.......................6

Economy.......................................................................................6

Figure: Economy and population..............................................7

Construction sector......................................................................7

Figure: Construction sector and the economy.........................8

Table: Construction sector importance and growth................9

Cement market......................................................................10

Figure: Principal existing Plants............................................11

Competitive dynamics.................................................................12

Government............................................................................15

Incumbent operations..................................................................16

Mugher Cement Enterprises (MCE).......................................16

Messebo Cement Factory......................................................17

National Cement Share Company (NCSC)............................18

Huang Shan Cement...............................................................19

Abyssinia Cement..................................................................19

Jema Cement..........................................................................19

Zhongshun Cement (Ethiopian Eastern Cement)..................19

Figure: Cement plant locations..............................................20

Market shares.........................................................................21

Figure: Share of nameplate capacity.....................................21

Figure: market share..............................................................22

Figure: Import share...............................................................23

Expansion and greenfield projects.............................................24

Derba Midroc..........................................................................24

Habesha Cement....................................................................25

Figure: Nameplate cement production capacity (2005-2015E).. 26

Other cement projects............................................................26

Figure: Select major upgrades and new plants.....................28

Figure: Cement production capacity (2005-2015E)...............30

Demand and supply..............................................................31

Figure: 2005-2011E cement demand.....................................31

Cement demand..........................................................................32

Figure: Apparent consumption vs “Demand” (2010 & 2011).32

Intrinsic demand vs apparent demand...................................33

Figure: 2005-2010E annual cement production.....................33

Cement supply............................................................................34

Capacity utilization.................................................................34

Figure: Capacity utilization (2006-2010E).............................34

Import and export activities.........................................................35

Figure: Cement imports and exports.....................................35

Figure: Cement imports: product types and evolution...........36

Figure: Cement import countries...........................................37

Cement prices........................................................................38

Figure: 2006-2010 indicative cement prices.........................38

Outlook.....................................................................................40

Figure: Apparent cement demand projection (2005-2015)....40

Figure: Growth in apparent cement demand (2006-2015).....41

Figure: Capacity utilization (2006-2015E).............................42

Next steps...............................................................................43

Data tables..............................................................................44

Supply-demand balance (2005 – 2010E, mm tons)....................44

Production capacity market share (2009-2015E, %)..................45

Imports by cement type (2005 – 2010E, tons)............................46

Cement import countries (2005 – 2010E, tons)...........................47

Table: Cement plant capacities (2005 – 2015E, mm tons)..........48

Disclaimers.............................................................................49

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Electronic (PDF)

Jul 2011