South Africa cement market (2011 update)

Table of Contents

Introduction........................................................................... 4

Executive summary............................................................ 5

The economy and the construction sector................... 6

Economy....... 7

Figure: Economy and population.......................................... 7

Construction sector.................................................................. 8

Figure: Construction sector and the economy..................... 9

Projects currently underway or in the works include:........ 10

Table: Construction sector importance and growth.......... 10

Cement market.................................................................. 11

Marketing and distribution....................................................... 13

Figure: Distribution form.................................................... 12

Figure: Cement groups....................................................... 14

Capacity shares.................................................................. 15

Figure: Share of nameplate capacity................................. 15

Government influence............................................................. 16

Incumbent operations.............................................................. 16

Pretoria Portland Cement Company (PPC)........................ 16

AfriSam... 17

Lafarge.... 18

NPC Cimpor........................................................................ 18

Figure: Cement plant locations.......................................... 19

Figure: Import share........................................................... 20

Expansion and greenfield projects......................................... 21

PPC’s Riebeeck Project.................................................... 22

AfriSam Saldanha Bay Project........................................... 22

Dangote / Sepakhu............................................................. 22

Wiphold / Conticem............................................................ 22

Figure: Major upgrades and new plants............................. 21

Figure: Nameplate cement production capacity (2008-2015E)..... 23

Figure: Cement production capacity (2005-2015E)........... 24

Demand and supply.......................................................... 25

Cement demand...................................................................... 25

Figure: 2005-2011E cement demand................................. 25

Cement supply........................................................................ 26

Figure: 2005-2010E annual cement production................. 26

Figure: Capacity utilization (2009-2010E)......................... 27

Seasonality......................................................................... 28

Figure: 2009-2011YTD monthly cement sales.................. 28

Figure: cement sales seasonality...................................... 29

Import and export activities..................................................... 30

Figure: Cement imports and exports................................. 30

Exports.... 30

Figure: Cement exports: product types and evolution....... 31

Figure: Cement exports countries..................................... 32

Imports.... 32

Figure: Cement imports: product types and evolution....... 33

Figure: Cement import countries....................................... 34

Cement prices.................................................................... 35

Figure: 2006-2011 indicative cement prices..................... 35

Outlook..... 37

Figure: Apparent cement demand projection (2005-2015)...... 37

Figure: Growth in apparent cement demand (2006-2015). 38

Next steps........................................................................... 40

Data tables.......................................................................... 41

Supply-demand balance (2005 – 2010E, mm tons)................ 41

Production capacity market share (2009-2015E, %).............. 42

Imports by cement type (2005 – 2010E, tons)........................ 43

Cement import countries (2005 – 2010E, tons)....................... 44

Exports by cement type (2005 – 2010E, tons)....................... 45

Cement export countries (2005 – 2010E, tons)...................... 46

Table: Cement plant capacities (2008 – 2015E, mm tons)...... 47

Disclaimers......................................................................... 48

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July 2011
Electronic (PDF)
USD1925