Brazil construction & cement market (2012 update)

Table of Contents

Executive summary...............................................................................4

Economic backdrop...............................................................................5

Figure: Economy and population.............................................................5

Construction...................................................................................6

World Cup and Olympics........................................................................6

Construction activity................................................................................7

Table: Construction sector importance and growth...............................8

Figure: Construction sector and the economy........................................9

Cement Sector......................................................................................10

Main changes since the last CW Group update:........................................10

A numerical perspective on cement: 2011 and 2012 YTD........................11

Figure: Apparent cement demand & production (2005-2012E)............12

Figure: 2005-2012E cement demand....................................................13

Figure: Regional demand breakdown (1980-2011)..............................14

Figure: Imports and Exports (2005-2012E)..........................................15

Production capacity and additions through 2015..................................15

Figure: Nameplate cement production capacity (2010-2015E)............16

Figure: Cement production capacity (2010-2015E) – comparative view....................................................... 17

Figure: 2015 cement production capacity regional distribution...........18

Figure: 2011 regional supply - demand gap.........................................19

Figure: Important upgrades and new plants..........................................20

Competitive dynamics.....................................................................22

Market shares........................................................................................22

Cement prices.......................................................................................24

Figure: 2007-2012 half year indicative cement prices.........................24

Chart: Average national cement prices (Jan 11 - Sep 12)...................25

Outlook.........................................................................................26

Figure: Apparent demand forecast (2005-2017E)................................26

Figure: Apparent demand forecast comparative view...........................27

Figure: Manufacturing utilization projection (2009-2015E)..................28

Risks and uncertainty...................................................................29

World Cup and Olympic fall-off effect: The end of the world as we know it?................................................... 29

Figure: South Africa apparent cement demand (2005-2012E).............30

Figure: 2014 World Cup estimated cement consumption....................31

Figure: impact of sporting events on cement demand (2011-2017E)..32

Conclusion: Brazil is complicated.....................................................32

Data tables...............................................................................34

Supply-demand balance (2005 – 2012E, mm tons)...................................34

Imports by cement type (2005 – 2011, tons).............................................35

Cement import countries (2005 – 2011, tons)............................................36

Exports by cement type (2005 – 2011, tons)............................................37

Exports by country (2005 – 2011, tons)....................................................38

Table: Cement plant capacities (2008 – 2015E, mm tons).........................39

Disclaimers...............................................................................43